What’s next for Syria?

The political and social landscape in Syria is at a critical juncture following the fall of the Assad regime. Below, we explore possible scenarios for Syria’s future, focusing on their meaning for key stakeholders and the broader implications for the region and the world.

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1. Fragmentation and Prolonged Instability

What It Means:

• Syria could devolve into a patchwork of territories controlled by various factions, including rebel groups, Kurdish forces, and extremist organizations.
• Local warlords might emerge, each governing pockets of land with limited or no central authority.

Impact:

• Syrian Population: Continuous violence and lack of basic governance would exacerbate the humanitarian crisis, with millions reliant on international aid.
• Neighboring Countries: Lebanon, Jordan, and Turkey would bear the brunt of increased refugee flows, destabilizing their own economies and social fabrics.
• Global Community: International efforts to provide humanitarian aid and peacekeeping could be stretched thin, while global security risks rise due to ungoverned spaces potentially harboring extremists.

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2. International Intervention and Peace Negotiations

What It Means:

• Major global and regional powers may broker a peace deal involving a transitional government and elections.
• International coalitions could oversee a reconstruction effort to stabilize the country.

Impact:

• Syrian Population: A negotiated peace could provide a pathway to rebuilding and democratization, though trust in such processes may be low among civilians.
• Regional Powers (Turkey, Iran, Saudi Arabia): A peace agreement may require compromises, such as Turkey’s acceptance of Kurdish autonomy or Iran scaling back its influence.
• International Powers (U.S., EU, Russia): Active involvement in stabilization and reconstruction would test global diplomacy and financial commitment, with long-term geopolitical stakes in mind.

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3. Kurdish Autonomy or Secession

What It Means:

• The Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) may push for self-governance or independence in northern Syria.
• This could strain relations with Turkey, which views Kurdish independence as a threat to its national security.

Impact:

• Kurds: Achieving autonomy would be a historic victory but could come with the challenge of defending their territory from Turkish military incursions.
• Turkey: Ankara may escalate military operations to prevent Kurdish independence, potentially leading to a prolonged conflict.
• Neighboring Countries: Kurdish aspirations could inspire similar movements in Iraq and Iran, reshaping the region’s borders and dynamics.

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4. Resurgence of Extremist Groups

What It Means:

• The power vacuum could allow extremist organizations like ISIS or al-Qaeda affiliates to regroup and gain control over territory.

Impact:

• Syrian Population: Civilians in extremist-held areas would suffer severe repression, with women and minorities especially vulnerable.
• Global Security: Unchecked extremist activity could lead to an increase in terror attacks worldwide, prompting renewed international military interventions.
• Neighboring Countries: Spillover violence and cross-border attacks could destabilize Iraq, Jordan, and Turkey.

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5. Return to Authoritarian Rule

What It Means:

• A military faction or strongman leader could consolidate power, creating a regime similar to Assad’s but with a different figurehead.

Impact:

• Syrian Population: While some semblance of order might be restored, repression and lack of freedoms could ignite future uprisings.
• Regional Powers: Authoritarian stability might be welcomed by some regional actors seeking predictability, such as Egypt or Saudi Arabia.
• Global Community: Western nations may face a dilemma over supporting stability versus promoting democratic ideals.

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6. Regional Proxy War Intensifies

What It Means:

• Syria could remain a battleground for proxy conflicts, with Iran, Turkey, Israel, and Gulf States backing rival factions.

Impact:

• Syrian Population: Continued external meddling would perpetuate violence, delaying recovery and reconstruction.
• Regional Powers: Heightened tensions between regional rivals could escalate into broader conflicts.
• Global Community: Diplomatic efforts to contain the proxy war would require significant resources and coordination, with little guarantee of success.

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Key Stakeholders and Their Concerns:

Syrian Population:

• Immediate Needs: Safety, access to food, healthcare, and education.
• Long-term Goals: A representative government, economic stability, and justice for war crimes.

Neighboring Countries:

• Turkey: Preventing Kurdish independence and managing refugee populations.
• Jordan and Lebanon: Stabilizing their economies and ensuring border security.
• Israel: Minimizing threats from Iranian-backed groups and extremist factions near its borders.

Global Powers:

• United States and EU: Balancing humanitarian aid and security interests while promoting democracy.
• Russia: Retaining some influence in the region despite Assad’s fall.
• China: Likely to focus on economic opportunities in Syria’s reconstruction rather than direct involvement.

Non-State Actors:

• Extremist Groups: Attempting to exploit instability to expand their influence.
• Kurdish Forces: Navigating the delicate balance between self-determination and survival amidst opposition from Turkey and other factions.

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What Is Most Likely to Happen?

The most likely scenario for Syria is a combination of fragmentation and regional proxy war intensification. The fall of Assad’s regime has created a power vacuum that is unlikely to be filled by a single authority in the near term.

1. Fragmentation:

• The country’s fractured opposition groups and the diversity of interests among stakeholders make it difficult to form a cohesive transitional government.
• Various factions will likely solidify their control over territories, leading to de facto partitioning of Syria.

2. Proxy War Dynamics:

• Regional powers like Iran, Turkey, and Israel will continue to exert influence, either by backing local factions or through direct military actions.
• Turkey is expected to escalate its operations to counter Kurdish autonomy efforts, further complicating the situation.

3. Limited International Intervention:

• While global powers might push for peace talks, competing interests and fatigue from prolonged involvement in Syria’s conflict suggest limited engagement. The focus may instead shift to containing extremism and managing refugee crises.

4. Humanitarian Concerns:

• The ongoing instability will perpetuate the suffering of civilians, with aid organizations playing a critical role in addressing immediate needs. However, access to certain regions may be hindered by conflict.